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Quantity: Decrease Quantity of undefined Increase Quantity of undefined. Instead, the job market remains tight. Meanwhile, the job openings rate varies considerably by industry.

The highest job openings rates are in health care and social assistance 7. The lowest rates are in state and local education 2. Finally, the government also publishes the quits rate, which is the share of jobs that people voluntarily leave each month.

Recall that, in , there was much talk about the so-called great resignation in which people were quick to voluntarily exit jobs. That has changed. Participation is back up, close to the pre-pandemic level. Moreover, since mid the quits rate has been falling and is now at a level consistent with the pre-pandemic era.

Specifically, the quits rate in December was 2. Evidently people still want to work. Powell said these things right after the Fed announced that it is holding the benchmark Federal Funds interest rate steady.

The rate is set between 5. The decision of the committee was unanimous. It seems more likely that the Fed will wait at least until the second half of this year before acting.

In the fourth quarter, labor productivity output per hour worked increased at a 3. Productivity was up 2. Surprisingly, productivity grew faster in service industries than in manufacturing, the opposite of the historical pattern.

Moreover, unit labor costs the labor cost of producing an additional unit of output grew only 0. This is all good news. Some people point to generative AI as likely to boost productivity. That is probably true, but not necessarily in the next year or two.

Investment in AI is a longer-term phenomenon that will most likely bear fruit over a period of years. Indeed, Fed Chairman Powell dismissed the idea that generative AI will boost productivity in the short term.

The European Union EU reported that, in January, consumer prices were up 2. When volatile food and energy prices are excluded, core prices were up 3.

Core prices were down 0. So far, these are terrific numbers. In other words, service prices are not decelerating as are other prices. Moreover, services tend to be labor-intensive while wages are rising sharply. Thus, the ECB will likely be reluctant to cut interest rates until wage pressure moderates.

One concern about inflation is that the crisis in the Red Sea, by boosting the cost of shipping goods from Asia to Europe, will significantly increase European inflation, thereby changing the calculus of the ECB.

Indeed, the cost of shipping a container from China to Northern Europe has roughly quadrupled since October. Memories of the inflationary impact of supply chain disruption during the pandemic remain raw.

Still, companies continued to draw down inventories, evidently in response to only modest demand. The fact that demand remains relatively weak could help to mitigate the potentially inflationary impact of the Red Sea crisis. Finally, it is worth noting that, despite the sharp rise in shipping costs, the cost of shipping a container from China to Europe is now only about one third of the level reached in early Thus, the inflationary impact of the current crisis will not likely be anything akin to what happened during the pandemic.

The principal source of weakness was Germany. The German economy failed to grow in both the second and third quarters and declined by 0. Although all EU economies have been hit by tight monetary policy and weak credit markets, Germany has suffered the consequences of the energy shock more than other countries.

The end of access to cheap Russian energy has changed the calculus for heavy industry that, previously, derived competitiveness from cheap energy.

Now, many big companies in Germany are investing abroad rather than in Germany. Meanwhile, the French economy failed to grow in both the third and fourth quarters. However, growth was positive elsewhere. Italy grew 0. Going forward there is reason for cautious optimism about Europe.

Real wages are now rising after a period of decline. This will likely boost consumer spending. In addition, households retain considerable excess savings following the pandemic. If they dip into that savings, it will boost spending.

Moreover, it is widely expected that the ECB will cut interest rates later this year. If so, that will likely boost credit market activity and strengthen business investment. Finally, assuming energy prices do not rebound, then it appears that the worst of the energy crisis is over.

Change your Analytics and performance cookie settings to access this feature. The irony is the UK combines an oversupply of certain skills with undersupply in others. The Q4 US Economic Forecast explores the state of the US economy, amid challenges like a runup in interest rates to fight inflation, federal budget policy volatility, and growing geopolitical tensions.

In the aftermath of the pandemic, how has investment in business structures fared? The June Economics Spotlight examines investment in commercial real estate and other nonresidential structures. Low domestic demand, low consumer spending, and high inflation are only some of the problems Japan's economy faces as wage negotiations approach for the year.

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Ira Kalish United States. Ira Kalish Chief Global Economist, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu United States. ikalish deloitte. Week of February 12, Drought in Panama Canal threatens to disrupt trade US-China trade not as disrupted by tariffs as expected Chinese trade patterns are shifting substantially Chinese deflation continues Japanese household sector remains weak Japanese immigration accelerates.

Drought in Panama Canal threatens to disrupt trade While much attention has been paid to the transport crisis in the Red Sea and the resulting increase in shipping costs, another crisis is taking place on the other side of the world.

A severe drought has plagued the Panama Canal. This has resulted in restrictions on the number and size of ships that can pass through the canal. The Panama Canal Authority has raised tolls to manage the shortage of capacity. The result has been a sharp rise in the cost of shipping goods from Asia to the East Coast and Southern Coast of the United States.

It did lead to a moderate decline, but it also led to a diversion of trade. This entailed Chinese firms exporting inputs to Southeast Asia where final products were assembled for export to the United States.

Thus, it has been estimated that, even as the share of US-manufactured imports coming from China declined sharply, the Chinese share of value added in goods consumed in the United States has actually increased.

Chinese trade patterns are shifting substantially Mexico is now the biggest exporter to the United States, supplanting China. Meanwhile, while US imports of key products from China fell sharply last year, such imports from India and Southeast Asia surged. Chinese deflation continues Deflation continues in China.

In January, consumer prices were down 0. This was the longest such streak since October at the height of the global financial crisis. Prices were up 0. However, in seven of the last 12 months, prices fell from the previous month.

Women suffered more than men under the multitudes of financial effects of the pandemic and recession. Women of color were particularly vulnerable as they worked in industries that quickly shut down. These women also tended to have more caregiving responsibilities for children and other family members.

And people of color have to worry more about the impact of the pandemic on their health , since they often live in communities woefully underserved by the health care system and frequently encounter bias and discrimination by health care providers.

Yet, those households —mainly people of color and the individuals most exposed to the recession and pandemic—had the least financial reserves to weather this storm. Other households, often college-educated white ones, saw their fortunes go up.

Their incomes were stable and sometimes even increased in industries that benefited from the massive shifts in economic activities toward working from home, remote learning, and new investments in public health, medications, and vaccines. Many of these households also saw their wealth go up as stock and house prices soared, as college-educated households and white households are more likely to own stocks and a house compared to those without a college degree as well as people of color.

Whatever economic recovery there has been, it has been very uneven. Congress quickly rose to the challenge in the spring of to help struggling businesses and Americans.

It enacted several relief packages that helped people deal with the recession through the summer. Households received stimulus checks to help fill the often-gaping holes that opened up when businesses across the U.

economy shut down from one day to the next. The combination of a widespread and potentially accelerating pandemic amid insufficient government assistance could quickly slow the economy, possibly pushing it deeper into the recession.

Mutating virus strains are accelerating the spread of the virus , while the supply of vaccines is too low to end the pandemic immediately. The results are less shopping, less travel, fewer visits to restaurants, and delayed health care procedures. If decisive economic action is delayed, the stalled economic recovery may get worse and people may not get back jobs—and in many cases, they may even lose jobs.

This slowdown will thus look different from the initial recession of the first half of First, the economy is in a weaker position, which makes it less likely that the economy can recover on its own.

Second, millions of businesses are gone, so that job growth will be concentrated in industries and occupations that have withstood the recession, leaving less room to add new jobs. Third, the pandemic is more widespread across the country, so that all parts of the country will suffer, not just those where the virus is especially prominent.

Fourth, the lack of income and wealth for many households means that people will cut back on everything, so that a wider array of industries will suffer from this slowdown than was the case in the spring of Because this slowdown furthers preexisting weaknesses and because it happens amid massive and rising inequality, many households and businesses—even among those that have come out largely unscathed so far—will suffer.

Only quick and large action by Congress can get the economy out of this slump. The private sector will not do enough to jump-start a strong recovery. A good proxy for the degree that a policy can boost economic activity is the fiscal multiplier.

It measures the economic output produced for each dollar spent by the government. Higher multipliers have more potential to reactivate the economy in the short term. Importantly, multipliers show what happens on the demand side of the economy. For instance, they show the total increase in spending in the economy by first reducing food insecurity through more spending on SNAP.

They thus provide an indication of what will likely happen to economic growth in the short-term. But multipliers do not show the added, longer term benefits to economic productivity.

The investments mentioned above would result in more housing stability, better nutrition, improved health, and less stress, among others. These factors make it much more likely that people can do their jobs well, boosting productivity and economic growth from the supply side.

These positive effects on the productive capacity of the economy are real, even if they are not included in fiscal multipliers.

Estimated fiscal multipliers alone already show how effective these measures will be to strengthen the economy. Some questions have arisen about the effectiveness of government spending on economic growth amid the pandemic.

The main concern is that people will not spend the money right away and the economic impact will consequently be smaller than expected.

Most of the measures suggested above will not fall into that category. Higher unemployment insurance benefits; more SNAP dollars; improved EITC and CTC; as well as aid to state and local governments will go to people and entities that already exhausted their resources.

They need to pay their bills to keep a roof over their heads, keep themselves warm and fed, and make sure that they are healthy and their children can keep up with schooling.

Right now, many of these families severely curtail their spending and are going deeper into debt. The added assistance from a new economic package will almost certainly result in the expected boost to spending. Exceeding the projections would be desirable, since it would mean that workers and their families could catch in terms of higher incomes, building more financial security that they have been missing for too long.

The package proposed by President Biden, the American Rescue Plan, fits the bill. It delivers on testing, vaccine production, and delivery ; it provides relief to needy populations though proven mechanisms; and will produce a broad-based boost to the economy, not only by reigniting demand, but also by increasing the productive capacity of the economy.

The stakes of not acting quickly and large enough are tremendous. The aftermath of the Great Recession showed what happens when Congress does not active decisively enough. Businesses will continue to fail and people will suffer from record long-term unemployment , mounting consumer debt , and declining economic mobility.

Andres Vinelli is the vice president for Economic Policy at American Progress. Christian E. Weller is a senior fellow at American Progress and a professor of public policy at the McCormack Graduate School of Policy and Global Studies at the University of Massachusetts, Boston.

The positions of American Progress, and our policy experts, are independent, and the findings and conclusions presented are those of American Progress alone.

This Week's Major U.S. Economic Reports & Fed Speakers ; am, Core CPI year over year ; WEDNESDAY, FEB. 14 ; am, Chicago Fed Missing Almost everyone subscribes to something: Netflix, Hulu, Spotify, NY Times, season tickets to sporting events

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